Industry pundits at search conventions have been predicting the future of search for as long as search conventions have been around.  You have to admit that when asked to predict the future it is never an easy task and one just slightly prone to error.  Aptly, one of the presenters acknowledged this point by using a Magic 8 Ball on a slide.  So, put on your tinfoil hats, break out your Nostradamus CliffsNotes, and prepare yourself for the future as envisioned by the SES panel…

Presented as fact…

· Adults spend 34% online

· 12% of marketing dollars get spent online

Conclusion and Prediction…

· Large discrepancy in spend

· Online ad budgets to swell to $54B in 2014 (Forrester research prediction)

The above conclusion and prediction are not really revolutionary, but I hope they are correct as mine and many of my co-workers jobs likely depend on it!  I’m going to say that I agree with the above market size prediction, but only because it’s such a huge number that it is hard to know where to start to argue with it and, let’s face it, the market is growing and shifting to online; that is a good thing for all of us in the business.

Now onto some more interesting search specific predictions grouped by theme…

· Search will get more social

· Lots of movement to non PC devices

· Search as we know it will cease to exist in 5 years

So let’s start with the first prediction: Search will get more social

The idea of social search is not really new and I kind of view this as similar to how cookies for Sesame Street’s Cookie Monster have become a “sometimes treat”.  The truth is, you may not want to know what your friends think about certain things and your friends might not want to let you know everything they buy or recommend.  This gets into fascinating privacy issues that will undoubtedly induce intense bouts of handwringing for companies and individuals alike as we all work to sort out what we can share, what we want to share, and when we want to share it.  Personally, I would be a tad frightened of some of the recommendations I might get from some of my old high school friends on Facebook.

Next prediction: Lots of movement to non PC devices

It’s hard to disagree with this as it’s easy to see the growth in mobile and tablets. The question is whether this growth will be additive to the PC market or if it will replace PCs. I believe it to be additive--though I have not done the research--I don’t have less PCs because I have a cell phone or a tablet. My time spent online has actually not decreased on the PC per se, but it has increased on my mobile. I don’t own a tablet, but perhaps that would replace a bit more actual PC time.  So, I agree with this prediction, but I agree with it with my own prediction that PC search will likely not shrink because of it.

Next prediction: Search as we know it will cease to exist in 5 years

Now this is a big, bold prediction as the death of the 10 blue links has been predicted for many years and yet we often do still see ourselves faced with them. Though at this point, I must point out that Bing does an excellent job at vertical search and giving a differentiated experience.  So, will search cease to exist as we know it?  I think the experience obviously changes. Whether or not the blue links cease to exist would seem to at least partially rest on whether or not structured data can make sizable inroads into the web. And for that I will consult my Magic 8 Ball…

Thanks for reading,

Phil Greenwood