New Year’s Revolutions: Five Megatrends for the Coming Year

There’s a dizzying amount of change in the media and advertising space right now, and next year looks to be even more chaotic and exciting. To make some sense of it all, I’ve identified some megatrends, which I define as trends that are reaching critical mass, or shifting in some significant way. Take a look, form your own opinions, and then let me know what revolutionary developments you believe await us in 2011. Happy New Year!

1. The Revolution Will (Still) Be Televised: 2010 saw the traditional television model challenged on many fronts—from changing consumer viewing habits to the Conan debacle, to a drop in 2009 advertising revenues. But as Mark Twain famously said, “Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated,” and the same could be said for the oft-predicted demise of television. In fact, a recent report seems to confirm that consumers aren’t racing to cut the cord. What’s more, broadcast ad revenues for 2010 are looking better than last year, and there are those who believe TV ads should cost even more. So while traditional TV certainly isn’t dead—at least from a consumer standpoint--its business model will continue to be challenged. There are simply too many other ways for viewers to stream entertainment to their TV, with more coming all the time. Looking ahead, I believe innovation in the living room will continue, which is good news for advertisers, because they will have more choices of how to engage with consumers on the biggest screen in the home. (It also means marketers have a lot to figure out about how to distribute their media dollars.) In 2011, expect more premature obituaries written for broadcast television—and also a more rapid escalation of the challenges already facing TV 1.0.

2. Advertising Will Get More Experiential: 2011 is the year we’ll usher in the mode of “Participation-based advertising,” where we continue the trend of turning over control to the user, only now the user gets to express that control in new and different ways: through sensory-based modes like voice and gesture. This trend relies on advances in, and adoption of, natural user interface technology. Judging by the remarkably high sales numbers for Xbox Kinect, it appears consumers are more than ready to immerse themselves into their entertainment experiences. I think Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey put it best, when he referred to NUI, and Kinect specifically, as ushering in an Era of Experience. This trend will open up a whole new set of creative possibilities for marketers, and a world of opportunity for the handful of cutting edge ad agencies that develop competency in storytelling across this new digital canvas. Now if someone could just invent a way to walk my dog using Kinect, my morning routine would be 20 minutes shorter…

3. Social-ism will continue to advance: Social networking has been a phenomenal growth story. In 2011, it will become a full-fledged juggernaut, penetrating every corner of consumer’s personal and professional lives. It will move beyond connecting with friends to fully embrace other “isms” to affect rapid and widespread social and economic change: think populism, activism and of course, consumerism—but with a twist, a la Groupon. A key development will be the effective blending of types of social networks – social gaming and Facebook friends, for instance—or one of my favorite new ventures, yoxi, which brings people together to “play their way” in search of solutions to social problems. Social networking will be the fuel that drives fundraising and political campaigns like never before, and social collaboration tools will increasingly be integrated with business software, and penetrate the workplace rapidly. In short, next year, everyone will have at least one social life, whether they want one or not.

4. Agency Siloes Will Dissolve: It’s a trend that has been building for some time—the need for agencies to adapt to a world where technology (new channels) and consumer adoption (social media) is driving advertising, rather than the other way around. All trends point to new consumer channels emerging even more rapidly in the coming year. In response, we will see the start of a “reunification” of the agency world, where the creative and media planners come back together, and often integrate closely with social media planners as well.

5. The Green Party Will Really Get Started: Integrating green, sustainable or socially-conscious elements into a business or product offering is becoming a standard requirement—consumers have simply come to expect it. In 2011, I see the sustainability movement getting really big, and really, well, real. That’s because major, mainstream consumer brands are getting very serious about sustainability—not only because it’s good, but because it helps their bottom line. Wal-Mart has been aggressively pushing sustainable practices for some time. One of our Xbox LIVE clients, Procter and Gamble, has completed its first zero waste manufacturing facility. For now, these types of efforts may feel somewhat detached from a company’s marketing—but I believe this will change a great deal over the next year as marketers gain a better understanding of how to integrate sustainability into the product story. Considering that these product narratives are often driven by newly minted MBAs, we’re likely to see a lot more of them. In the past year, the number of Green MBAs has grown exponentially; there are now over 80 such programs in the United States alone.

I welcome your thoughts on these predictions. In 2011, more than ever, those who anticipate and lean into the winds of change will continue to stay upright – and even thrive. I hope this forecast provides some valuable insight as you solidify your plans for the New Year.

Happy holidays and Happy New Year!

Thank you,

Mark Kroese, General Manager, Advertising Business Group, Entertainment & Devices Division

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