An economic downturn never arrives at a suitable moment. However, if you are a retailer, or looking after a retailer's search account I hope you can forgive my superficial first thoughts when the markets went all pear shaped last September. Never mind countries going bankrupt. All I could think was "Why now, how inconvenient, let them break the news when the stockings are safely filled!"
So how did Christmas retailing fare in 2009 and what can you do to start 2010 with a bang?
The 2009 Run Up to Christmas
We're now only a few busy days away from Christmas itself and things are looking a lot rosier compared to last year. The British Retail Consortium reports sales are up 13.3% YOY in London. The organisation says November's growth was the best since November 2006. The weak pound helped stimulate growth by attracting shoppers from abroad and special sales events also encouraged the shopping masses. Some reckon that having the end of the 15% VAT in sight may have persuaded some shoppers to buy expensive items now rather than later.
The UK sales monitor mentions that in the UK overall, retail grew by 1.8% compared to last year when markets dropped by 2.6% as a result of the banking crisis. A somewhat more demure result compared to London's cheery figures but some argue that that the London stores are a useful indicator of the state of the wider economy. They were the first to be hit hard by the downturn and are the first ones feeling the possible end of the recession too.
Christmas come early?
This year the Christmas related searches were on the up as early as August whilst usually we see an increase starting in September. Some believe this was caused by people concerned with the effect of the Royal Mail UK postal strikes on their Christmas deliveries. Others speculated the early bird shoppers were demonstrating their will to spread Christmas spending across various months whilst bagging bargains in the early sales. Shops on both sides of the pond were prepared early too, responding to the new frugal way of life and keen to tempt tourist into buying a little Big Ben or Statue of Liberty bauble.
The Christmas trading snapshot survey
Nevertheless until November I got the feeling from the trade press that everyone was in a state of trepidation, keeping their fingers crossed and hoping that the Christmas season to be a prosperous one for all. A bit like you never ever want to say your country has won the World Cup before the referee has blown the final whistle, just in case you accidentally jinx them. The Christmas Trading Snapshot Survey shows that 42% of the retailers that cooperated thought this Christmas would be better than last whilst 58% of respondents thought it would be the same. Nobody thought it would be worse.
The biggest ever online shopping day!
'Online' celebrated the biggest EVER shopping day on December the 7th according to the IMRG. The busiest shopping minute (which was at 14:43 for whom likes detail) saw a 61% like-for-like increase compared to last year. At this one minute £1.4 million was spent. The busiest hour was that day between 13:00 and 14:00 during which a total of £33 million was spent (an increase of 21%).
This nationwide coordinated shopping frenzy sees such a concentration of buying because of a mix of factors like the last pay day before Christmas, Monday/Tuesday being the best online shopping days of the week and looming online Christmas delivery cut off days. However I think the YOY growth should not be overlooked. In the September issue of The Retailer Magazine ('Trading Through the Recession') Hany Fam, General manager of UK, Ireland and Global Accounts, says that consumers are not actually spending less but that they take more time to research value. And where does one do this better than online?
When I look at the performance of many retail accounts I look after, I feel like carefully cheering a little, even though the referee has not blown the whistle yet and the extra time seems to be taking ages.
And Finally.... Don't forget the Sales!
Before you are all 'driving home for Christmas' consider the January sale. Every year we see a seasonal interest in the likes of sofa's, furniture, kitchens and certain electrical goods and a huge interest in shopping on Christmas and Boxing Day (mad, I know!). A quick budget check, the right keywords and some January sale ad copy will help you to start 2010 in great shape!